Bring a Deuce

Tyler Update

Mon, 12 May 2008 18:44:46 GMT

Tyler took 5th and won over 55K. He was "disappointed, but very happy".

Tyler is Chip Leader at Final Table of WPT Canada

Sun, 11 May 2008 23:39:49 GMT

My close friend Tyler is chip leader of the final table at River Rock for the inaugural WPT Canada . Play begins at 6 pm Pacific today (Sunday). Good luck!

Randomness

Fri, 09 May 2008 03:07:13 GMT

WSJ interview with Leonard Mlodinow discussing the role of randomness in our lives.

Excerpt:

Mr. Mlodinow: I believe there is true expertise in some endeavors, and not in others. There is obviously no such thing as expertise in predicting the results of coin tosses, but there is expertise in predicting the behavior of lasers. I feel that picking stocks or predicting Hollywood hits is more like the former. The process of building a company or making a film is more like the latter.
But there is a related question: Given that we are discussing an endeavor in which it is possible, how can you tell if someone has expertise? That is hard, because expertise plus bad luck can equal a failure, and lack of expertise plus good luck can equal success. The only way to tell the two apart is to observe the individual over a long time, which in statistics often means 100 or even 1,000 trials. This is obviously often not possible, so I recommend instead that we judge people by a thoughtful analysis of their intelligence, philosophy, work ethic, etc., rather than simply by their results.

Freakonomics - Phil Gordon Q & A

Wed, 23 Apr 2008 08:46:57 GMT

Phil Gordon

Here's a question & answer column from the angular Phil Gordon.

Excerpt:

Q: Is Phil Hellmuth really as unpleasant as he seems? Conversely, who are the top pros that are regarded as being the most fun to play with — not necessarily the ones you can clean up on, just the ones that you’d have a good time with? (I’m guessing Negreanu is at the top of this list.)

A: Hellmuth isn’t as bad in real life as he appears on T.V. I really like him. He’s a great family man, does lots of work for charity, and has a kind heart.

Unfortunately, he comes across like a complete a–hole on television. But, it’s great for ratings.

I really like playing at the table with Phil Laak, Antonio Esfandiari, and David Grey — they have excellent stories and are very entertaining. As for Negreanu — things aren’t always the way they appear on television.

Follow Up to Post on Baseball Series (Warning: Technical Content)

Wed, 16 Apr 2008 18:51:10 GMT

I wrote a brief program in C# to answer the question,

4. In baseball, suppose the American League champion is better than the National League champion, such that it has a 55% probability of winning each game against the NL champ. Then the NL champ nonetheless will win a best-of-seven-games series four in 10 times. What is the smallest odd number, X, for which a World Series between these two league champs that is best-of-X will ensure that there’s a 95% probability of a just result — the superior AL champ winning?

Consider a 5-game series. A team can sweep in three games. To win in four games, the victor can lose only one of the first three. That means there are three distinct win-loss sequences that result in a team winning in four games.

In general to choose k items (in this case wins) from a group of n (games):

n choose k = n!/(k! * (n - k)!) {Note: x! is the product of all the integers from x to 1, so 5! = 5*4*3*2*1 = 120}

Google will actually do this for you, typing 5 choose 3 in the search line returns the answer 10.

So I figured out the chances a team would win a series in each number of games, and then added them.

Here is my code:

namespace Project40708
{
    class Program
    {
        static void Main(string[] args)
        {
            int x = 3; //The shortest non-trivial series
            double prob;
            do
            {
                prob = 0;
                for (int i = (x - 1) / 2; i < x; i++)// This loop starts out at the earliest point which a team can win a series.
                {
                    prob = prob + step(i, (x - 1) / 2);// accumulates the chances of winning in exactly i games

                }
                Console.WriteLine("The AL team wins a best of {0} series with probability {1}", x, prob);
                x = x + 2;// The series are best of x, x is always odd.

            }
            while (prob < .950);
        }

        static double step (int x, int y)
        {
            if (y > x)
                return 0;
            double result = 0;
            if (y == x)
            {
                return Math.Pow(.55, y + 1);//This is a sweep!
            }
            result = step(x - 1, y) * x / (x - y) * .45;//I did this recursively.
            return result;
        }

    }
}

From WSJ: A Probability Quiz

Tue, 08 Apr 2008 09:24:39 GMT

A Probability Quiz

Carl Bialik, author of "The Numbers Guy" for the Wall Street Journal, has posted a reader quiz about probability. Question 4 is of particular interest to me.

4. In baseball, suppose the American League champion is better than the National League champion, such that it has a 55% probability of winning each game against the NL champ. Then the NL champ nonetheless will win a best-of-seven-games series four in 10 times. What is the smallest odd number, X, for which a World Series between these two league champs that is best-of-X will ensure that there’s a 95% probability of a just result — the superior AL champ winning?

I think I have successfully written a program that calculates the answer. My programming skills are suspect, but it seems to produce the right results for the simpler cases, if my rusty probability is correct. I am going to hold off giving my answer as to not post an answer key and skew the poll's results. (How's that for arrogance! Like my mom is going to read this and then start an avalanche of poll responses.)

I get for a 3-game series the AL champ wins 57.5% of the time. In a 7-game series that result rises to 60.8%. Any guesses as to what X is?

Funny Farm

Wed, 19 Mar 2008 08:41:44 GMT

Insomnia. Stress. So of course I find a huge time sink

http://shygypsy.com/farm/p.cgi

This looks really complex, for puzzle enthusiasts, with some poker themed material.

April

Wed, 19 Mar 2008 07:02:39 GMT

April , the new disc from Sun Kil Moon, is being streamed on myspace through March 20. I wore out their 1st disc a couple years ago and freaked out a home game when we were using my mp3 as "background" music and someone just set it to most played. You see it's not exactly party music to most people. Yet I am so super excited that I am actually using verbs here on B.a.D. So if you are so inclined, go get your slowcore on! Not sure why I like this artist when most in this vein i don't like at all, i guess it's mojo or sumthin...

Hopefully this musical opiate will help me wrap up my final projects for school, then Thursday morning off to Reno bitches! I will be slumming as much as I can, maybe $10 NCAA wagers and free coffee-like substance while my homie crushes the $1000 NL tourney that I'm too prudent to play. Or low limit omaha with the locals - no smiling please! you whippersnapper.

Reno, broke, and sober 5 great Nights! think how awesome my trip reports will be!

Jason Lives!

Sun, 16 Mar 2008 08:40:43 GMT

So after suffering a rough beat I was down to 55 chips in a SNG, 4 players left. I ended up winning the sucker. I think my opponents were a wee too tight defending their blinds...

I think the new disc by Brand New Heavies put me in a good mood, and helped me suck out!

Internet Gaming Rules Face Long Odds

Sun, 09 Mar 2008 23:20:18 GMT

Cindy Skrzycki has an article at the Washington Post on the problems with UIGEA.

It's not easy making rules for a U.S. law intended to deter illegal Internet gambling by choking off the flow of funds to offshore sites. That's because no one seems to agree on what the law covers.

Officials at the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve found that out after sifting through more than 200 comments from banks, gamblers, church groups and members of Congress on recommendations for the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006. The basic sentiment was that their Oct. 4 proposal, which depends on financial institution enforcement, won't work.

The outcome will affect 23 million online gamblers, some 2,500 Internet sites and the growth of an industry with an estimated $15 billion in annual global revenue. The law bars financial institutions from processing payments involving Internet gambling -- with the notable exceptions of Indian gaming, state gaming and horse racing.

Read the article here .

Pandora

Sun, 03 Feb 2008 15:37:16 GMT

I've been a night owl the past couple nights, staying up until morning alternating homework with sit n gos. I think I found a station on Pandora that works for me. (Pandora is an automated music recommender and internet radio service.) I entered "Jellyfish" and so far it's been very tasty. I haven't had to "thumbs down" at all yet, and even got a Dukes of Stratosphear tune!

Fri, 01 Feb 2008 08:42:11 GMT

Ace King offsuit is a 2 to 1 favorite over seven deuce. Often in STT (sit n go) or final table situations, there are situations in which a player is put to a decision that will close the action. If your opponent is getting the proper price, they may be better off making a call with such a dog hand (tournament equity is different than chip equity, but that's a subject for another post) . In which case, you should want your opponent to fold!

I've been playing more STT lately, and it's worth it just for getting chewed out by the recently busted! I love destructive criticism.

WWonka Continues the Boston Run

Mon, 24 Dec 2007 07:57:30 GMT

Gratz to WWonka for his deep run in the daily double A Sunday night! He played like a champ, but the evil big stack guy caught his miracle card.

Homecoming

Thu, 13 Dec 2007 02:17:34 GMT

I made it back in one piece. Without multiple liters of liquid courage, mornings are pretty easy in Sin City. The gathering seemed saner than recent editions, with a few exceptions. Vegas was full of Brits, in town for the Hatton/Mayweather boxing match. From the look of other reports, not sure I was even there. My spirits were lifted by seeing old friends and meeting new folks. In some ways I was closing a chapter, as I have stopped drinking, am playing less, and starting full time classwork in January. Details to follow ???

WTF!

Sun, 02 Dec 2007 16:43:56 GMT

I'm heading to the madness that is the December gathering in LV. I have quit drinking. We'll see how this plays out.

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 02:15:35 GMT

http://www.peppermillreno.com/gaming/poker/fall_poker_tournament

Reno's Peppermill hosts "The Masters of Poker" October 26 to November 4. Good structures, good room rates at a top notch resort. I plan on attending and am interested in organizing a meet-up.

Heavyweight Championship of Poker

Mon, 09 Jul 2007 02:42:28 GMT

From Peppermill's website:

The Peppermill Hotel Casino in Reno, Nevada, is pleased to announce it will host one of the biggest events in poker in spring 2008, the Heavyweight Championship of Poker.

The championship game, the Heavyweight Title Bout, has one of the largest buy-ins ever for poker at $100,000. The tournament is already attracting some of the top poker players in the country and is expected to bring 17 days of heated poker play to the Peppermill.

Players can qualify for the Heavyweight Title Bout two ways: through satellites or paying the $100,000 buy-in. An extensive schedule of satellites will be offered at the Peppermill starting April 25, 2008.

There are a limited number of seats available for the tournament, so players need to act quickly if they do not want to be shut out.

The Peppermill will host the Heavyweight Championship of Poker just months after opening the new Tuscan-themed $300 million dollar expansion featuring an all-suite hotel tower, nightclub, three story spa and salon, Tuscan-themed pool, private garden areas and convention center. The Peppermill will be the perfect setting for poker players from across the nation.

Thu, 07 Jun 2007 07:51:08 GMT

http://www.popmatters.com/pm/features/article/38947/the-night-after-the-poker-party/

A poker article from PopMatters, an international magazine of cultural criticism.

How to Make a Profit From Richard Brodie

Wed, 06 Jun 2007 01:38:35 GMT

1. Allow him to play in WSOP.
2. Collect juice.
3. Do not comp him.

Kevin Finishes 66th

Sun, 03 Jun 2007 07:09:10 GMT

$1216 payout for Kevin in his first WSOP event!

Kevin Makes Day 2

Sat, 02 Jun 2007 21:42:43 GMT

My friend Kevin made it to the second day of the WSOP $500 Casino Employees Event. He is around 17k in chips and has a good shot at the money. 140 players left, 99 players paid.

Good luck, Kevin!

World Series of Poker Begins

Fri, 01 Jun 2007 19:59:29 GMT

They kick off with a $5K mixed limit/no limit holdem. My friend Kevin is in the Casino Employees Event at 5 pm.

Good luck, Kevin!

The Hammer - The Movie

Sat, 26 May 2007 10:13:28 GMT

Oh yes, it's coming. "The Hammer" is a movie starring Adam Carolla as a boxer.

http://thehammermovie.com/

Venetian Deep Stack Extravaganza

Tue, 08 May 2007 09:55:31 GMT

http://www.venetian.com/VenetianEng/Assets/Files/deepstack2.pdf

June 1- July 1 at the Venetian. Mostly NL $330 - 1060, with 1 HORSE, 1 Limit HE, 1 Omaha/8 and 1 PLO. $330 events start with $6,000 in chips (and a dealer bonus pay $10 into dealer pool and get extra chips). The $540 and $1060 start with 10k chips.

The Blogfather Returns

Thu, 08 Mar 2007 08:52:51 GMT

http://guinnessandpoker.blogspot.com/

Iggy is back!